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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.